Numerical intelligence · Research & Algorithms

Two models fit the data. Can they still disagree about risk?

Two price curves can become indistinguishable while their local curvature remains different. The missing ingredient is the spatial scale of the question.

EXPLORE THE IDEA

Prices agree. Local curvature need not.

A thin layer makes the scale of the question visible.

COEFFICIENT FIELDA thinner and thinner local layerbackground a₀ε = 0.0379DIFFERENT LIMITING QUESTIONSFor a₁ = 2a₀Price gap → 0Point gamma → ½ Γ₀Finite bump ≠ infinitesimal curvatureLimits stated analytically; no invented prices
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Illustration of a shrinking coefficient layer. Readouts state the analytical limiting relation for a₁=2a₀: the price difference tends to zero while point gamma tends to half the background value. The drawing does not fabricate a finite-width price solution.

Follow the information

From input to outcome

The same model produces both the observed quotes and the downstream risk query. In the thin-layer limit these need not carry the same information. A fixed finite bump asks a different question from point gamma.

Scroll the diagram horizontally to follow the route. Keyboard: focus the diagram, then use the arrow keys.

Thin-layer model family → Same pricing equation → Two observation scales → Compare limiting responses → Identifiability statement. The same model produces both the observed quotes and the downstream risk query. In the thin-layer limit these need not carry the same information. A fixed finite bump asks a different question from point gamma.
Information-flow map. An analytical construction, not a fitted market-risk system. Original vector schematic based on the method and evidence discussed in this article; signal shapes and icons are illustrative, not additional measurements. Open full-size diagram ↗

Read the main route from left to right; labelled side branches show additional inputs, checks or feedback. The sections below explain the operations and their experimental limits.

A fit is not an answer to every question

An inverse model is often judged by how closely it reproduces observations. But the quantity used downstream may be a derivative, a local stress, or another response that the observations barely constrain. Options provide a concrete example: accurate call prices do not automatically identify point gamma. This is a question about information, not solver precision.

The scale of the question is part of the answer

The thin-layer example changes a diffusion coefficient in an increasingly narrow neighborhood of the queried spot. Prices smooth over that neighborhood and converge to background prices. Point gamma remains sensitive to the local coefficient because the backward equation relates curvature to the maturity derivative there.

A fixed nonzero bump samples prices at separated locations and has a different limit. Letting the bump shrink first is not the same as letting the layer shrink first. This is why a tiny quote residual cannot alone establish a reliable point-risk estimate over an unrestricted family of thin layers.

Numerical precision is not model identification
Numerical precision is not model identification. Original scientific diagram; the stated component and information flow, not an additional experiment. Open full-size figure ↗

Hide a different coefficient in a thin layer

Our construction places one positive diffusion coefficient in a shrinking neighborhood of the spot and another outside it. At every fixed positive maturity, prices converge to the background prices. Point gamma at the center instead converges to the background gamma multiplied by the inverse coefficient ratio. Every nonzero layer has an ordinary constant-coefficient neighborhood, so this is not merely an ambiguous interface derivative.

Cε→C0,Γε→a0a1Γ0\begin{gathered}C_\varepsilon\to C_0,\\ \Gamma_\varepsilon\to\frac{a_0}{a_1}\Gamma_0\end{gathered}
Prices converge as the layer shrinks, but point gamma retains the local coefficient ratio. The companion paper states the bounded-domain assumptions and proves the limit.

Finite movements ask a different question

Hold a nonzero spot bump fixed and the finite-bump response converges to the background response. Let the bump go to zero first and the anomalous point curvature remains. The two limits do not commute. That distinction matters whenever a downstream decision treats an infinitesimal derivative as interchangeable with the response to an actual finite perturbation.

Archived one-year synthetic cases, with background volatility 0.20 and both central coefficients. The full supplement retains all 42 cases across three maturities; the analytical limit does not depend on selecting this panel.
Archived one-year synthetic cases, with background volatility 0.20 and both central coefficients. The full supplement retains all 42 cases across three maturities; the analytical limit does not depend on selecting this panel.

From an example to an information limit

For finitely many fixed quotes with fixed positive Gaussian noise, the thin-layer and background observation distributions become indistinguishable. Their point gammas remain separated. A uniformly reliable estimator of point gamma over this unrestricted family is therefore impossible. Minimum layer widths, stronger regularity, additional observations, or a different target change the problem; this is not a universal impossibility theorem for risk estimation.

Specify the scale of the risk question

The practical lesson is to specify the spatial scale of a risk query and the regularity information supplied by the model class. Greater solver precision cannot replace that information. Finite responses may be more meaningful for some decisions, but their identifiability still requires its own observation argument.

What this contributes to learning

The lesson is to specify what must be identified before designing the representation or loss. A more expressive learned model can fit observations while introducing additional unconstrained responses. Operator analysis makes one such failure explicit and suggests choosing decision-relevant scales. It does not prove that finite-bump risk is identified from every sparse surface, nor that a trading application is ready.

Evidence & further reading

The links below distinguish the project record from foundational literature. This revised story does not add a new application-validation experiment.

  1. Compact computation and model ambiguity in option risk. Spline research archive (2026). Local archive snapshot.
  2. Compact, verifiable operator-based options risk. Spline research archive (2026). Local archive snapshot.